Prediction & Reward Mechanics

Swiv uses a weight-based system to determine how rewards are distributed across participants in a pool.

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Payout Formula

Each user’s payout is proportional to their contribution to the total pool weight: $$\text{payout} = \frac{\text{your\_weight}}{\text{pool\_total\_weight}} \times \text{total\_pool\_volume}$$

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Weight Calculation

A user’s weight is determined by four factors: $$\text{weight} = \text{stake} \times \text{AccuracyScore} \times \text{TimeBonus} \times \text{ConvictionBonus}$$

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1. Accuracy Score

The accuracy score measures how close your prediction is to the final outcome. $$\text{AccuracyScore} = \frac{1}{1 + 10 \times \text{error}}$$ Where: $$\text{error} = \frac{|\text{prediction} - \text{result}|}{\text{result}}$$

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2. Time Bonus

The time bonus rewards early participation. It is calculated as: $$T = \frac{\text{cutoff\_time} - \text{entry\_time}}{\text{cutoff\_time} - \text{start\_time}}$$ $$\text{TimeBonus} = 1 + 1.5 \times T^2$$

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3. Conviction Bonus

The conviction bonus rewards consistency — not changing your prediction after the initial submission.

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Key Principles