> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.swiv.xyz/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Prediction & Reward Mechanics

> How Swiv calculates weights, accuracy scores, and reward distributions.

Swiv uses a **weight-based system** to determine how rewards are distributed across participants in a pool.

## Payout Formula

Each user's payout is proportional to their contribution to the total pool weight:

$$
\text{payout} = \frac{\text{your\_weight}}{\text{pool\_total\_weight}} \times \text{total\_pool\_volume}
$$

## Weight Calculation

A user's weight is determined by four factors:

$$
\text{weight} = \text{stake} \times \text{AccuracyScore} \times \text{TimeBonus} \times \text{ConvictionBonus}
$$

***

## 1. Accuracy Score

The accuracy score measures how close your prediction is to the final outcome.

$$
\text{AccuracyScore} = \frac{1}{1 + 10 \times \text{error}}
$$

Where:

$$
\text{error} = \frac{|\text{prediction} - \text{result}|}{\text{result}}
$$

<Info>
  * The closer your prediction to the final outcome, the higher the score.
  * Maximum score is **1.0** (exact match).
  * Predictions beyond the defined accuracy threshold receive a score of **0**.
</Info>

***

## 2. Time Bonus

The time bonus rewards **early participation**. It is calculated as:

$$
T = \frac{\text{cutoff\_time} - \text{entry\_time}}{\text{cutoff\_time} - \text{start\_time}}
$$

$$
\text{TimeBonus} = 1 + 1.5 \times T^2
$$

| Entry Timing  | T value | Time Bonus |
| ------------- | ------- | ---------- |
| At pool open  | 1.0     | **2.5×**   |
| Midway        | 0.5     | **1.375×** |
| Near deadline | \~0     | **1.0×**   |

***

## 3. Conviction Bonus

The conviction bonus rewards **consistency** — not changing your prediction after the initial submission.

| Behavior                            | Conviction Bonus |
| ----------------------------------- | ---------------- |
| No updates after initial submission | **1.5×**         |
| Prediction updated at least once    | **1.0×**         |

***

## Key Principles

<CardGroup cols={3}>
  <Card title="Precision wins" icon="crosshair">
    The more accurate your prediction, the higher your share of the pool.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Early = more weight" icon="timer">
    Submitting early earns a higher time bonus, compounding your overall weight.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Consistency is rewarded" icon="shield-check">
    You're not penalized for updating, but sticking with your original prediction earns a bonus.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>